A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
